Of Hope and Despair

It was April 2008.  

"I'm sure the market is close to a collapse.  I believe it'll go sub-10K" I'd said to my friend and economist SB.  He'd bristled at my naivete.  "You don't understand econmics or market.  Don't make statements like that.  If markets plummet like that, the entire economy's going to crumble".  I had felt sufficiently chastised.  

Swaminathan Anklesariya Iyer in TOI and Economic Times had written an article about crude at sub-100 prices.  Everyone (including yours truly, regardless of the hope it inspired) had guffawed at it as a good joke.  All of us wanted to believe some Indian who in the meantime was making predictions about crude at $200+ per barrel.  

And it's October 2008 now.  In six months my 'irresponsible' statement has come true.  The markets across the globe have tumbled.  And, SSA Iyer too wouldn't have dreamt that crude would be sub70 dollars!  People have lost lives (some have killed themselves, some have succumbed to heart attacks) as they have watched their investments sublimate without a trace.  

Nobody sees the market bottoming out yet.  The fears of recession grips everyone.  Jobs are disappearing faster than you could say, 'fired'!  Of course the governments aren't helping anybody's cause either with doublespeak, volte-faces,  window-dressing measures, et al.   Nothing seems to be rational.  Including the news of a sacked high-ranking executive of a Korean company for saying 'it's extreme greed that's caused this situation'.  The company fired him because he 'spoke against the policy of the company'!

The most irrational happenings can be seen in the currency markets.  People I believe are hoarding dollars and yens.  (More yens than dollars I guess as yen is seen appreciating even against the dollar).  India's fundamentals surely appear to be stronger than that of the US'.  However, the rupee is taking such a severe drubbing that it's crossed the 50Rs/$ mark today.  

Media and the markets are trying to find hope in small events like the coming down of inflation and gold prices, and even vegetables.  

It had to happen - the meltdown.  So, it's happened.  The markets and the men will be brought to mother earth.  The prices of real estate that had touched the Moon should be coming down along with the Chandrayaan.  The dreams of many have been shattered.  Someone else will build his very dreams on these ruins.